Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Clinton, Obama, McCain

This interesting site runs simulations of the 2008 election based on recent polls (weighted by size and freshness). Currently Clinton wins 62% of trials vs McCain; Obama wins 53%. Basically the polls claim that HRC's old victory map trumps Obama's new map. November is far away, and I doubt McCain would do even this well against either, but the result is an even better argument for HRC than winning the popular vote in the primary according to metrics M, N, and O. And of course it's an argument in favor of the Unity Ticket BTD is (perhaps half-tauntingly) pushing on a more data-point-driven basis.


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