Monday, March 17, 2008

The End of the HRC Campaign

Quick reaction to the news that FL won't hold a revote: HRC would have had a good argument going into the convention that she won the popular vote (and did much better than Obama in the Democratic vote) but that depended on the large vote delta she would have gotten in FL. With no revote, and thus I assume the disenfranchisement of FL, the Obama supporters won't accept that argument on threat of bolting, so it's all over strategically (assuming that the Rev. Wright matter or something else doesn't explode). I nearly agree with BTD in comments here and elsewhere in that thread. Probably withdrawal would be too precipitous a reaction (and surely the HRC side isn't thinking this way given their failure to fight hard for a revote), but a winding down or downshifting of the campaign is probably the course I'd recommend on the facts as I understand them.

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Blogger Chuchundra said...

I don't think the popular vote ever meant much anyway. Clinton supporters convinced themselves and some of the chatterers that it did because that was the only viable way for them to claim any sort of victory.

But the nomination process is about delegates. It's set up for delegates and everyone knows it's about delegates. To turn around and count popular votes instead is basically telling all the caucus states that they're being partially disenfranchised because turnout is obviously lower for caucuses. You'd be saying that the rules that were agreed upon ahead of time, that delegates are the important thing, are being thrown away.

I'm sure a lot of people would be pretty unhappy about that.

17/3/08 20:08  
Blogger rilkefan said...

Right - who cares about the popular vote. What's important is what a small number of party activists decide.

The nomination process is about delegates, but you don't get to pick and choose which. If the superdelegates who will decide this process decide that the popular will is what's relevant - if I understand correctly the popular will in all states, caucus or no - then with Florida and a good run (entirely possible given Obama's recent problems and the general landscape), HRC could have had a good argument to be the most reasonable nominee. And in fact the Obama camp's eagerness to disenfranchise Florida indicates that this was a real fear on their part. And Obama's nomination more important than FL's EVs. This is a worse day for the party than HRC.

17/3/08 20:24  

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